I'll answer that one for you.

NO!

Only two leading Republicans have spent any time campaigning in Iowa, and the Democrats are likely to have a statistical tie between Edwards, Obama, and Clinton.

But for the leading Democrats, an inconclusive ending here would be a much more complicated result.

Because none of them would be judged a decisive loser, Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Edwards and Mr. Obama would all be able to go on to the New Hampshire primary next week, no questions asked. And you can bet on this: the other Democrats in the race — Senators Christopher J. Dodd and Joseph R. Biden Jr., Representative Dennis J. Kucinich and Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico — would feel less of the morning-after-Iowa pressure to pull out.

It would be hard for any candidate to play the “I beat expectations” game and claim some sort of chimerical victory, much the way Bill Clinton proclaimed himself the winner after coming in second in New Hampshire in 1992 — although Mr. Edwards, who for much of the year campaigned in the shadow of his two rivals, would no doubt try.

“Frankly, if there’s a three-way tie, that changes the dynamics of what has been reported the entire year: that it’s a two-person race,” said Jennifer O’Malley Dillon, the Iowa campaign director for Mr. Edwards, who has put in more than a year preparing for this week. “It changes the way people look at the race, and they’ll see it as a three-way race.”

It is a good bet, in fact, that one candidate would try to claim a victory, even if it was by a single percentage point or less. Still, that is not likely to get him or her on the cover of Time or Newsweek (that would be the old-school way of measuring the political impact of winning in Iowa). The other two would be left fighting for the right of second place. And politics being politics, it is likely there would be a campaign trying to present a three-way tie as a victory.

Anything but a runaway victory for Hillary in Iowa is a loss. After all, she is the putative front runner in the race, with all the advantages that being married to the former Philanderer in Chief brings to her campaign. And if John Edwards keeps close, even running third, he can claim a victory of sorts given his relative lack of money. And for Obama, the failure to get a boost going into New Hampshire and the other early states will harm his campaign. We could see a real train wreck on the Democrat side.

On the other hand, the GOP race could be settled by February 5 -- and almost certainly following that date. But if it isn't, look for the possibility of a brokered convention in Minnesota this summer.

Posted by: Greg at 04:59 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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