Too close to call, given that this is a parliamentary system and the two top parties each have less than 50% of the number of seats needed to form a government.

Inconclusive election results sent Israel into political limbo Wednesday with both Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and hard-line leader Benjamin Netanyahu claiming victory and leaving the kingmaker role to a rising political hawk with an anti-Arab platform.

Livni's Kadima Party won 28 seats, just one more than Netanyahu's Likud, in Tuesday's election for the 120-member parliament, according to nearly complete results. With neither party winning a clear majority, neither can govern alone. Gains by right-wing parties give Netanyahu a better chance of forming a coalition with his natural allies.

"Political Tangle," read the headline on the front page of the daily Yediot Ahronot, alongside photos of the two smiling candidates.

The results set the stage for what could be weeks of coalition negotiations, with Israeli media reporting the first meetings already scheduled for Wednesday.

Given that the third place Yisrael Beiteinu party, which took 15 seats, has indicated it will not form a coalition with Kadima but would with Likud, that effectively gives Netanyahu 42 seats to Livni’s 28 (41, if one presumes that Labor would only join with Kadima) That puts Netanyahu in the lead – and with a host of other right-wing and religious parties holding an additional 23 seats, it would appear that the next Prime Minister of Israel is more likely to be Netanyahu. That is especially true in light of the fact that any Kadima-led coalition would have to include Arab parties that would be rejected as partners by conservative and religious parties.

My speculation on the matter is that we are likely to see whatever government emerges here serve for only a short time, with elections coming whenever the first serious crisis confronts the government. It could be Passover before the government is formed – and I don’t know that it will live to see next Passover.

Posted by: Greg at 01:10 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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