Is she coming to visit?

We donÂ’t know, yet, but she may stay to the south of us, which means tropical storm-like weather instead of a Category 3 storm that would require evacuation.

Keep packing that suitcase and hold off on a sigh of relief, but the National Hurricane Center's latest official forecast names the stretch of coast just north of Matagorda Island as Hurricane Rita's most likely target instead of Galveston.

With landfall on the Gulf Coast not expected until Friday night, meteorologists caution that predictions remain unreliable: Long-range forecasts such as this are typically off by hundreds of miles, and different computer models call for different landfalls. Morever, the overnight course shift is small, so preparations continue in the danger zone from Brownsville to Lake Charles, La.

"We're definitely not out of the woods yet," said Kent Prochazka, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in League City.

If Rita does in fact hit closer to Matagorda than Galveston as a Category 3 hurricane, the Houston area would be in for high winds, heavy rain and possibly tornadoes, but that wouldn't be as dangerous for Houston as a direct hit on Galveston, Prochazka said.

Instead of devastating Galveston and then moving over downtown Houston still packing the 100 mph winds of a Category 2 hurricane, a hurricane making landfall near Matagorda would to be expected to roll over Houston with tropical force winds in the 70 mph range.

"The difference between that and making landfall in Galveston is huge," Prochazka said.

I made hotel reservations for our evacuation tonight, and the closest I could get was in the Ardmore, Oklahoma. – “only” 400 miles from home. Here’s hoping I get to call and cancel them rather than bugging-out.

Oh, and by the way – only four more storms until they run out of names for the year – meaning we could see “Hurricane Alpha” in the event we get five more this year.

Posted by: Greg at 03:06 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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