This is standard end-of-term fare -- but there doesn't seem to be any realistic possibility of a justice retiring as the current term ends. Still, some want to speculate about what would happen if a justice did step down.

Retirement speculation focuses on Justices John Paul Stevens and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, both liberals. Stevens is 87 years old; and although Ginsburg is 13 years younger, her frail appearance has often prompted conjecture of poor health.

These justices have also taken to reading their dissents from the bench in recent months, a practice that Curt Levey, general counsel for the Judicial Confirmation Network, believes may signify their displeasure with being in the minority on several important cases.

Justice David Souter, 67, who was appointed by President George H. W. Bush, also is rumored to be considering retirement.

Jan Crawford Greenburg, author of the recent book, "Supreme Conflict: The Inside Struggle for Control of the United States Supreme Court," has written that the Bush administration has prepared a "short list" of possible nominees should a justice step down.

According to Greenburg, possible nominees include Janice Rogers Brown of the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals; Priscilla Owen and Edith Brown Clement, both of the Fifth Circuit; Diane Sykes of the Seventh Circuit; Loretta Preska, a New York Federal District judge; and Raoul Cantero of the Florida State Supreme Court.

While all six are considered conservatives who would fit the president's judicial restraint criterion, Preska and Cantero are more junior than nominees over the past 20 years. All justices since Scalia's nomination in 1986 have been elevated from the Federal Court of Appeals.

Quin Hillyer, senior editor for the American Spectator and a regular contributor for the conservative blog ConfirmThem, told Cybercast News Service that he knows of "nobody who really believes there will be a new Supreme Court vacancy" at this time.

Levey agreed with Hillyer to a point. Though there are no rumors of an imminent retirement floating around Washington, he told Cybercast News Service Friday: "I'm not sure you can take that as an indication one way or the other. These upcoming vacancies are such a closely held secret, so rumors often have no correlation to the truth. When [former Justice Sandra Day] O'Connor retired, the conventional wisdom was that [former Chief Justice William] Rehnquist was to retire, not O'Connor."

If any of the three justices mentioned were to retire, the replacement would certainly be more conservative. And each of the potential replacements mentioned is well-respected -- and it is interesting to note the presence of a Hispanic and a black woman on the list.

More likely, in my eyes, is a death between now and the 2008 election -- and every day closer to that election contributes to the difficulty of getting ANT nomination through the Senate. The precedent? Lyndon Johnson's unsuccessful attempt to elevate Justice Abe Fortas to the center chair in 1968 -- although I doubt that any potential nominee would be as scandal-ridden as that Johnson crony.

Posted by: Greg at 12:26 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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