It looks like Congressman Ron Paul, who represents the neighboring congressional district (I'd be in it if I were one precinct further south) is exploring a presidential run.

Rep. Ron Paul, the iconoclastic, nine-term lawmaker from southeast Texas, took the first step Thursday toward a second, quixotic presidential bid _ this time as a Republican.

Paul filed papers in Texas to create a presidential exploratory committee that will allow him to raise money. In 1988, Paul was the Libertarian nominee for president and received more than 400,000 votes.

Kent Snyder, the chairman of Paul's exploratory committee and a former staffer on Paul's Libertarian campaign, said the congressman knows he's a long shot.

"There's no question that it's an uphill battle, and that Dr. Paul is an underdog," Snyder said. "But we think it's well worth doing and we'll let the voters decide."

I like Ron Paul personally, and consider him to be a charming individual. I like many of Ron Paul's stands on the issues, though there are a number of places where we part company. And I consider Ron Paul to probably have more integrity than almost any politician in Washington -- of either party.

But I won't be backing his campaign for president -- though I will likely see about helping out his congressional campaign in 2008 if he runs for reelection in CD14.

For those of you who ask why, the reason is simple.

Ron Paul cannot win the presidency. He cannot even win the GOP nomination.

Scratch that last part. He cannot even pull 5% in any primary in any state. His quixotic, gadfly role guarantees that he has and will alienate more folks than he attracts. the best he could do would be raise some ideas that would likely be lost in the crushing defeat he would suffer in every state -- no matter how optimistic some libertarian bloggers are.

By the way -- I'd like to call your attention to this post by Chris Elam of Texas Safety Forum, a definite insider in past Ron Paul campaigns.

Well, I'm sure many of you have heard about it by now. Pop and I have known for a while, and if Ron decides to make a big push for the Presidency - we're behind him 100%. Goodness knows that the current crop of candidates are extremely disheartening when it comes to the topic of conservative government.

Let me address one thing. The internet is abuzz with rumors on who will replace Ron in his Congressional seat. Off the top of my head, I can name at least 8 people who would put their names into the ring for a primary battle.

However, I also have no indication on whether or not Dr. Paul intends to retire from Congress in 2008. At this moment, he is exploring the Presidential bid. He has not announced his impending retirement, and I would not be surprised in the least if we see Dr. Paul on the ballot for CD 14 in 2008.

If I hear something different, and Ron personally tells me that I have permission to share it here - I'll let you know.

My big fear is that this move will set off a bloody primary fight for the CD14 GOP nomination -- and that such a fight could create problems for the GOP holding the seat, regardless of the nominee.

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Posted by: Greg at 08:54 AM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
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