North Carolina and Indiana vote today -- and the results of the two races will be quite telling. Either Hillary Clinton's campaign ends tonight, or she fights Barack Obama to the bitter end -- whether that be the last primary in four weeks, or the floor of the convention.

ItÂ’s almost over.

Well, not quite. But the Democratic presidential primaries taking place on Tuesday in North Carolina and Indiana have more delegates up for grabs than any of the remaining contests. For political, demographic and mathematical reasons, those states have the potential to reshape the competition between Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.

Simple scenarios.

1) Obama wins both races. Hillary Clinton's campaign is dead.

2) Hillary Clinton wins in Indiana, but loses big in North Carolina. She fights on through June, but no one takes her campaign seriously.

3) Hillary Clinton wins in Indiana, and comes within 4 points in North Carolina. Clinton fights through June, and likely concedes after the final votes are in June 3.

4) Hillary Clinton wins both Indiana and North Carolina. The race for superdelegates is on, and we are likely to see a flor fight at the convention that will dwarf anything in recent memory.

I'd like option #4 personally -- and not just because of the damage it would do to the Democrats. We haven't really had a convention where the events inside the hall mean anything in my lifetime -- it would be nice to see a return to the days when conventions matter, even if it is the exception to the rule.

Posted by: Greg at 10:45 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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