In my lifetime, there has never been a race for the Republican nomination for president that was truly "up for grabs" and without a clear front-runner well-before th primary season had started.

Think about it.

Goldwater.
Nixon.
Ford.
Reagan.
Bush.
Dole.
Bush.

Out of all of those candidates, only Gerald Ford had any significant opposition, and that was due to the unusual route by which he had reached the presidency.

This year is different, notes commentator Stuart Rothenberg. The top three candidates (McCain, Giuliani, and Romney) all have issues that could keep them from igniting with the base or which could tear them down before the primaries start. Even the second-tier candidates do not inspire enthusiasm or deviate significantly from the base.

Mike Huckabee and Sen. Sam Brownback (Kan.)? Each is not without appeal, but both have critics and so far no way to raise the tens of millions of dollars needed to make a real race. Anti-tax activists in the Republican Party are equally anti-Huckabee, and the former governor of Arkansas told me months ago that he agrees with Bush's position on immigration.

Interestingly, I've asked a number of thoughtful political consultants, from both parties, who they think is most likely to be the GOP nominee and who is the least likely. So far, Giuliani is seen as the most likely and McCain as the least. That's not a scientific sample or a reliable poll. But that kind of anecdotal evidence has me more confused than ever.

Of course, none of this includes Sen. Chuck Hagel (Neb.), an anti-Iraq War Republican who is conservative on issues but has the outsider/reformer image that John McCain once had but is now losing.

If you aren't confused yet, you aren't paying attention. This is a race that is not merely up for grabs. It's unusually unpredictable. The only thing I'm sure of right now is that the Republicans will have a nominee at some point next year.

This one is going to be interesting -- and the only positive note I can think of is that the Democrats have their own hotly contested race to deal with.

Posted by: Greg at 02:00 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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