The wave will be crashing down tonight as the votes come in. Who will be washed away, and who will be the survivors?

The New York Times has some great observations (they do, from time to time, engage in some good analysis when they aren't trying to disguise it as objective news). I think this bit is dead on.

The States

For Republicans, two states could end up determining whether the race goes on from here: California and Massachusetts, and this has nothing to do with delegates. Mitt Romney headed out to California on a last-minute trip on Monday, drawn by polls suggesting the race was narrowing, despite Mr. McCainÂ’s collection of high-profile endorsements like Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. If Mr. Romney pulls out a win in the nationÂ’s largest state, no matter what happens anyplace else, he is unlikely to leave the stage soon.

By contrast, Mr. McCain — in a poke-in-the-eye moment — campaigned in Massachusetts, Mr. Romney’s home state. Should Mr. McCain win in Massachusetts and hold on to California, that would probably be the lights-out moment at the Romney headquarters. No wonder that Mr. McCain sneaked a last-minute trip to California onto his schedule for Tuesday morning.

For Democrats, watch California, Massachusetts, New York, Missouri, Arizona and New Mexico. If Mr. Obama wins California, that is a real momentum blocker for Mrs. Clinton: There are few states in the country that are more identified with the Clinton presidency than this one. But Mr. Obama has suffered one of those external political problems that often madden campaigns: a last-minute California poll that showed him closing in on Mrs. Clinton — in the process, raising expectations that he will win. No wonder Mr. Obama’s advisers are suddenly talking about the big surge of early voting in California before Mr. Obama began to break through there.

If Mr. Obama wins Massachusetts, that will be testimony to the power of Senator Edward M. Kennedy, and a real sting for Mrs. Clinton, who once thought she had a comfortable lead there. If Mr. Obama comes close in New York, or in neighboring New Jersey, watch for a tough round of questions about Mrs. ClintonÂ’s electability.

Finally, think of Missouri, Arizona and New Mexico as the swing states in this contest: Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton are pretty evenly matched there. Missouri is a swing state in the general election, and might be one in this one as well.

I'll take it a step further -- for the GOP candidates, it all comes down to California. McCain and Romney are going to split the rest of the states, and McCain is even likely to come out of them with more delegates. but a victory in California, where McCain was so strong as recently as a week ago, will say something loud and clear about the ability of John McCain to unite the party and of the depth of opposition to him among the base. I don;t know that a California victory will be a harbinger of Romney's nomination, though -- I think it might signal the likelihood of a brokered convention this summer, with some other candidate emerging as the consensus figure around which Republicans can unite. But if McCain takes California, both Romney and Huckabee can fold up their campaigns and wait for a call from John McCain about the vice presidential nomination -- a call that I don't believe either will get, either due to personal animus (Romney) or unfitness for the post (Huckabee). And a decisive victory may allow John McCain the time to reach out to the "irreconcilable" wing of the GOP and do some reconciling -- because as hard as his candidacy is for some of us to stomach, the thought of John McCain in the Oval Officeought to cause us less heartburn than the idea of either President Hillary Clinton or President Barack Obama.

On the Democrat side, I think that a strong showing by Obama will mean an incredibly bitter and divisive fight all the way to the convention. That is how I'm hoping to see it play out, because it can only help the GOP.

Posted by: Greg at 11:11 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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