Democrats in Maryland -- and nationally -- are running scared over the possibility that Michael Steele might draw significant support from the black community in Maryland.

An internal document prepared by a top Democratic strategist warns that a majority of African American voters in Maryland are open to supporting Republican Senate candidate Michael S. Steele and advises the party not to wait to "knock Steele down."

The 37-page report says a sizable segment of likely black voters -- as much as 44 percent -- would readily abandon their historic Democratic allegiances "after hearing Steele's messaging."

"Governor Ehrlich and [Lt. Gov.] Michael Steele have a clear ability to break through the Democratic stronghold among African American voters in Maryland," says the March 27 report by Cornell Belcher, polling consultant for the Democratic National Committee, which bases its findings on a survey of 489 black voters in Maryland conducted last month.

The report, given to The Washington Post this week, drills into a topic that has emerged as a key focus of this year's U.S. Senate contest in Maryland: race.

Why is that? Simple -- the message of the GOP is one that resonates with the values of many African-Americans in this country. After all, the black community shares many of the bedrock values of the more conservaitve element of the white population of this country -- and the younger generation of African-Americans is beginning to adopt a "what have you done for me lately" attitude that weakens historuical ties to the Democrats and opens the door to the message of the GOP. The presence of black faces on the GOP ticket -- embraced with enthusiasm by the mainstream of the party -- creates an opportunity for the GOP message to be heard.

Some question this poll's results.

If the findings of the poll are correct, they paint a somewhat different vision of the black electorate from what has been commonly understood to this point, said David Bositis, a senior research associate at the D.C.-based Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies. Bositis said nothing in his research suggests that an African American Republican will be able to grab a significant segment of the black vote.

The DNC survey finds that 22 percent of black voters support Steele when matched against a "generic" Democrat.

"There's just no way it's that high," Bositis said, noting that Steele's performance among black voters in the 2002 election did not approach that number. "If he was that much of a draw then it's doubtful he would only have received 13 percent of the black vote."

Yes, that is true -- but in 2002 he did not have four years in office as a popular statewide officeholder. There was no track record of openness to African-Americans on the part of a GOP administrationin Annapolis. The situation is very different than it was four years ago.

The recommendation in this Democrat report? Attack Steele early, often, and intensely.

Steele focused on two aspects of the document: the finding that a high percentage of black voters have connected with his message and the recommendation that the Democrats attack him early.

"Voters need to know they're trying to make me into something I'm not," Steele said.

He deflected questions about a potential vulnerability exposed in the report. A message that resonated with black voters identified Steele as "George W. Bush's hand-picked candidate," the survey found. It's a message Democrats have tried to exploit. Even as Walker discussed the findings, he pointed to a photograph hanging in his office -- it shows Steele and Bush arm in arm.

But I have to wonder if that very message does not have the potential to backfire -- by highlighting that the GOP message of inclusiveness. After all, if a black man like Steele has risen to the top on his merits in the GOP without the appeal to the same tired rhetoric of race-baiting that so many black politicians have used (paging Cynthia McKinney!), then the presidential connection could help.

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Posted by: Greg at 10:29 PM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
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