Usually, an incumbent with 40% of voters backing him for reelection is in serious trouble. Not in Texas – at least not this year.

Texas Governor Rick Perry (R) is enjoying a growing lead in a four-way campaign to keep his job.

For the third straight election poll by Rasmussen Reports, Perry earns support from 40% of Texas voters. Normally, this level of support would be devastating for an incumbent, but nothing is normal in Texas this year. Two Independent candidates join Democrat Chris Bell in there desire to replace Perry. All three earn between 15% and 19% of the vote.

The biggest change from our previous survey is the receding threat to Perry from Carole Keeton Strayhorn. Strayhorn, who is currently the state Comptroller, initially intended to challenge Perry in the Republican Primary.

When that route looked unappealing, she left the GOP to run as an independent. In February, before the Democrats had settled on their candidate, Strayhorn attracted 31% of the vote and had pulled within nine points of the incumbent. Now, with 19% support, Strayhorn is at her lowest level of support since entering the race.

Strayhorn's presence in the race has added an element of drama in what was expected to be an easy walk to re-election for Perry. However, it has also created difficulties for Democrat Chris Bell to draw attention to his campaign. Bell, now at 17% in the poll, has less than half the support of Governor Perry.

Kinky Friedman, unfortunately, is at the bottom of the poll with 15%. He would at least make the race fun.

The key thing to consider is this – as of today, Perry beats any of his opponents by a 2-to-1 margin. It would take one of these three dropping out of the race and every last one of their supporters migrating to one of the other candidates for Perry’s margin to drop to less than 5%. And if he and the Legislature produce a credible school finance reform package, expect him to see a big increase in support.

Posted by: Greg at 12:56 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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