National polls get big play in the media, but really don't matter.

After all, the Constitution doesn't count the national totals for anything. It is the Electoral College totals that determine the outcome of the election -- and polls show something very interesting there, according to the analysis by this blogger.

Click the map to get the supporting data that this is based upon the latest polling data. McCain leads Obama in a whole lot of states -- mirroring the red state/blue state dichotomy we have seen over the two elections. Even where there is not enough polling data, we can infer which way certain states are trending -- some for McCain, some for Obama.

The result of these projections rather strikingly place McCain ahead 249-237 electoral votes, with the states of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and New Mexico being toss-ups. Victories in any two of the Midwestern states would give John McCain the electoral victory, while Obama would have to win do one of the following:

• win Michigan, and Ohio.
  
• win Wisconsin, Ohio, and New Mexico.

That's it. Nothing else does it if the other states remain static, which is unlikely to happen over the next 25 ½ weeks.

Questions that need to be asked at this point are as follows:

• Will Obama pick Bill Richardson as VP in order to secure those five electoral votes in New Mexico -- and if he doesn't will the perceived slight swing the state towards the Republican nominee from Arizona, since he is regarded as friendly by the large Hispanic voting bloc there.
  
• Does Obama hurt himself by picking a running mate from one of the three Midwestern states, given that his home state is Illinois? Can McCain help himself by doing so -- especially an Ohioan?

There is a lot of calculus that needs to go on between now and the conventions -- and the conventions and election day. My guess is that it will likely swirl around how to win in Ohio -- the critical prize this fall.

There also remains one other possibility. All other things remaining equal, we could end up with an electoral vote tie if McCain wins Ohio and Obama wins the other three states. Quite frankly, I don't dare predict what would happen in that case without knowing the exact composition of the House of Representatives at the start of the new Congress in January -- and the political implications of the election going to the House of Representatives so soon after the craziness of the 2000 election absolutely boggles the mind.

I know I'm going to check back at Brian's Electoral Projection website regularly to see how the numbers crunch. I suggest that you do, too, since this election will probably be a squeaker!

UPDATE: Allahpundit discusses the same topic at Hot Air, looking at Marc Ambinder's projections at The Atlantic. They've got it pegged at 245-221, with 72 electoral votes in play. And they do raise the 269-269 scenario.

Posted by: Greg at 11:28 AM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
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