January 23, 2008

Lying With Statistics?

Oh, come on! Ron Paul more popular than Rudy Giuliani? Based upon the Nevada caucus results? You must be joking!

Ron Paul, the Texas congressman frequently dismissed as a long shot candidate with no real chance at winning the Republican presidential nomination, has won nearly twice as many total votes to date as Rudy Giuliani, a candidate still widely viewed as a strong contender.

With his second place finish in SaturdayÂ’s Nevada caucus, where Paul defeated Giuliani in every county in the state, the Texas congressman has now received 106,414 votes to 60,220 for Giuliani. Both candidates have collected zero actual delegates.

Now mind you, Giuliani hasn't really mounted a campaign in ANY of the early states, including the couple where "pressing the flesh" is key to the outcome. And as important as I think Nevada was, the reality is that you would also have to conclude that John McCain (who won in South Carolina the same day) is also equally in trouble if you were to use Nevada as the yardstick for measuring viability.

But consider this -- Ron Paul has campaigned vigorously in all of the states so far, in contrast to Giuliani's "wait until Florida" strategy. And Ron Paul still has won no delegates, even in states where he claims to have some strength.

Now I've been very clear that I think Ron Paul needs to be defeated for the presidency AND congress this year because of certain bizarre positions and outrageous statements over the years. But at the same time, I believe that there are some philosophical points worth taking away from his campaign. However, Ron Paul is definitely NOT it -- and I suspect that the relative performances in Florida and on Super Tuesday will demonstrate that he is not candidate with broader and deeper support than Rudy Giuliani.

Posted by: Greg at 11:06 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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