At least that's how it appears if current population trends continue.

Texas is on track to be the biggest winner when all 435 House seats are reallocated after the 2010 Census, getting as many as four new districts and Electoral College votes because of population gains.

And that, in turn, will translate into more federal dollars and increased political clout for Texas.

The growth assures Texas a gain of at least two seats, according to recent analyses of Census data by two redistricting-consulting and data-analysis firms.

If population increase continues in similar fashion through the end of the decade, as expected, Texas will definitely add a third and possibly a fourth seat, said Clark Bensen, a Virginia analyst who counsels Republicans on redistricting strategy through his firm, Polidata.

Kimball Brace, who typically advises Democrats through his Election Data Services, also projects that Texas will pick up three seats during the once-a-decade rebalancing in the House. Texas gained two seats after the 2000 decennial count and now has 32 House members.

How these districts are allocated will be the key. Houston suburbs are growing, and that could translate to an additional district or two here. Similarly, Dallas/Fort Worth will likely see at least one seat added. Assuming they are drawn by a GOP controlled legislature, I would anticipate at least a two seat pick-up for Republicans. That puts me at odds with the analysts -- but I base my projection upon what areas are growing and the fact that much of that growing Hispanic population is non-citizen (in fact, illegal alien) growth. And sorry, but every new Democrat Hispanic district will require cannibalizing Hispanics from other districts -- making the other districts more white, more affluent, and more Republican. The only area where redistricting would not have that impact would be down in the Valley.

I would even suggest that this growth could mean that my own district, CD22, could be split. What that would mean for my representation could be just about anything, depending upon what parts of neighboring districts are brought into the newly created districts.

Posted by: Greg at 11:52 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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