This looks bad.

AP Poll: GOP pick is 'none of the above'

And it seems worse when you read the rather convoluted reporting on the poll in question.

And the leading Republican presidential candidate is ... none of the above.

The latest Associated Press-Ipsos poll found that nearly a quarter of Republicans are unwilling to back top-tier hopefuls Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, John McCain or Mitt Romney, and no one candidate has emerged as the clear front-runner among Christian evangelicals. Such dissatisfaction underscores the volatility of the 2008 GOP nomination fight.

In sharp contrast, the Democratic race remains static, with Hillary Rodham Clinton holding a sizable lead over Barack Obama. The New York senator, who is white, also outpaces her Illinois counterpart, who is black, among black and Hispanic Democrats, according to a combined sample of two months of polls.

A half year before voting begins, the survey shows the White House race is far more wide open on the Republican side than on the Democratic. The uneven enthusiasm about the fields also is reflected in fundraising in which Democrats outraised Republicans $80 million to $50 million from April through June, continuing a trend from the year's first three months.

"Democrats are reasonably comfortable with the range of choices. The Democratic attitude is that three or four of these guys would be fine," David Redlawsk, a University of Iowa political scientist. "The Republicans don't have that; particularly among the conservatives there's a real split. They just don't see candidates who reflect their interests and who they also view as viable."

More Republicans have become apathetic about their options over the past month.

A hefty 23 percent can't or won't say which candidate they would back, a jump from the 14 percent who took a pass in June.

Now that sounds really bad -- until one considers that over the last two months we have seen a new major candidate (sort of) enter the picture and another one begin to swoon. And interestingly enough, the AP doesn't link back to the actual data -- I had to go to the Ipsos website to find it. And know what -- the actual data shows something very different.

1b. If the 2008 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were...for whom would you vote?

Candidate	7/9-11/07	6/4-6/07	3/5-7/07
Giuliani	21	27	35
Thompson	19	17	N/A
McCain	15	19	22
Romney	11	10	8
Gingrich	5	7	11
Huckabee	3	2	3
Brownback	1	3	3
Other	2	1	-
None	8	4	6
(DK/NS)	15	10	12

So as I see the data here, you really only have a group of 8% opposed to all the candidates. What you do have, however, is a 15% undecided group as the GOP field finds itself in a state of flux -- waiting to see what happens with the race before committing themselves to one candidate or another. That said, 2/3 of GOP voters are committed to one of the top 4 candidates -- hardly a sign of dissatisfaction, especially when our candidate list is still in flux and we are still six months away from the first primary or caucus!

I suspect that we will see some additional changes in the next couple of months, as Thompson formally declares his candidacy sometime before Labor Day and McCain continues to flounder. And when Newt Gingrich makes it official that he has just been teasing the base with his hints of a presidential run, that will cause another 5-10% to move into the folds of the other major candidates.

MORE AT Michelle Malkin

Posted by: Greg at 02:57 AM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
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Posted by: John at Fri Nov 21 07:12:37 2008 (8qEmy)

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