Is the jump in violent crime an aberrational spike or a sign of something else at work?

Violent crime in the United States rose more than previously believed in 2006, continuing the most significant increase in more than a decade, according to an FBI report released yesterday.

The FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting Program found that robberies surged by 7.2 percent and homicides rose 1.8 percent from 2005 to 2006. Violent crime overall rose 1.9 percent, substantially more than an increase of 1.3 percent estimated in a preliminary FBI report in June.

The jump was the second in two years, following a 2.3 percent rise in 2005. Taken together, the two years represent the first steady increase in violent crime since 1993, FBI records show.

The uptick presents a significant political challenge for the Bush administration, which has faced growing criticism from congressional Democrats, big-city mayors and police chiefs for presiding over cuts in federal assistance to local law enforcement agencies over the past six years.

Frankly, the increase is troubling, though coming after a decade of decline might not be surprising as they initially seem. And the issue of cuts in federal aid to local law enforcement begs the question of whether local law enforcement should be funded at the federal level.

However, there seems to be a question that isn't answered by this story. To what degree does the surge in violent crime constitute a surge in gang-related crime connected to groups such as MS-13? And related to it, to what degree is the increase connected to the illegal alien population more generally?

This is not a question of scapegoating, but a genuine inquiry based upon increased media coverage of Latin American drug gangs and crimes committed by the undocumented. Are those real phenomena, or are they simply ratings boosting yellow journalism? And if the increase is connected to illegal immigration, to what degree should that impact the debate about border security and immigration amnesty programs?

Sadly, we may not be able to get those breakdowns -- the FBI classifies Hispanic perpetrators as White, so the data is not readily available to the public.

But the numbers for black-on-black crime are astounding, with there being nearly as many murders committed by that relatively small population segment against that relatively small population segment as there are by the many times larger white population against any ethnic group. That does sort of make one wonder about the focus on the questionable prosecution of the Jena 6 when there is obviously a much more pressing problem facing the black community. When will we see the major civil rights organizations making an effective effort to stem black-on-black violence in the face of a "no snitchin'" culture?

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