We all saw how accurate this prediction was last year?

A top researcher predicted a "very active" 2007 Atlantic hurricane season Tuesday, with at least nine hurricanes and a good chance one will hit the U.S. coast. The forecast by William Gray predicts 17 named storms this year, five of them major hurricanes. The probability of a major storm making landfall on the U.S. coast this year is 74 percent, compared with the average of 52 percent over the past century, he said.

The forecast, issued two months before the hurricane season starts, is virtually identical to the one Gray issued before the 2006 season, which turned out far quieter than he and others had feared.

"Our forecast skill does improve as we get closer to the start of the season," said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team at Colorado State University. "Stay tuned."

Last May, Gray's team forecast 17 named storms in 2006, including nine hurricanes, five of them major ones, and an 81 percent chance that at least one major hurricane would hit the U.S. Scientists with the National Hurricane Center and two other National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration agencies issued similar predictions.

Instead, there were 10 named storms in 2006 and five hurricanes, two of them major ones, in what was considered a "near normal" season. None of those hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast — only the 11th time that has occurred since 1945.

I'd argue this constitutes a wild @$$ guess -- and will treat it as such.

Sort of like global warming.

Posted by: Greg at 10:07 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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