I've made it clear that I am not a fan of Pakistan's Pervez Musharraf. That said, I'm not sure that his impending resignation is good news.

While it appeared almost certain that Mr. Musharraf would leave before facing impeachment, there was great uncertainty over what would follow. Many Pakistanis believe the country could suffer even greater instability after Mr. Musharraf goes.

The coalition partnership between Mr. Zardari and Mr. Sharif has been deeply troubled from the start, and the current accord on ousting Mr. Musharraf is likely to fragment as soon as he is gone, politicians say.

There is little agreement, for example, between the two men on the choice of the next president.

Mr. Zardari, head of the Pakistan Peoples Party, would like the post, according to his party supporters and senior members of the Pakistan Muslim League-N.

Mr. Sharif, his rival and coalition partner, is opposed to Mr. ZardariÂ’s ascendancy to the presidency, but would go along with it if the presidency were stripped of many of its current powers, Pakistan Muslim League-N officials said.

So, the result of the impending change will be a fragmenting of the parliamentary coalition that exists in Pakistan, and the probable weakening of the Pakistani executive branch. Will the remaining government be able to deal effectively with the Islamist question along the Afghan border -- or perhaps I should ask if it will be able to deal with that problem any more effectively than Musharraf has, given the failures of the current regime which has at least had the support of the military and has at least somewhat responded to the terrorist threat as an ally. At least one of the two major opposition parties is openly sympathetic to the Islamist cause, which could make for a less effective response from the new government of Pakistan.

Posted by: Greg at 02:15 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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