The National Intelligence Estimate SAYS Iran has stopped its nuclear weapons program.

A major U.S. intelligence review has concluded that Iran stopped work on a suspected nuclear weapons program more than four years ago, a stark reversal of previous intelligence assessments that Iran was actively moving toward a bomb.

The new findings, drawn from a consensus National Intelligence Estimate, reflected a surprising shift in the midst of the Bush administration's continuing political and diplomatic campaign to depict Tehran's nuclear development as a grave threat. The report was drafted after an extended internal debate over the reliability of communications intercepts of Iranian conversations this past summer that suggested the program had been suspended.

"Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005," a declassified summary of the new National Intelligence Estimate stated. Two years ago, the intelligence community said in contrast it had "high confidence that Iran currently is determined to have nuclear weapons."

The new estimate, prepared by the nation's 16 intelligence agencies, applied the same "high confidence" label to a judgment that suspected Iranian military efforts to build a nuclear weapon were suspended in 2003 and said with "moderate confidence" that it had remained inactive since then.

Even if Iran were to restart its program now, the country probably could not produce enough highly enriched uranium for a single weapon before the middle of the next decade, the assessment stated. It also expressed doubt about whether Iran "currently intends to develop nuclear weapons."

Now there are some caveats that need to be added here.

1) The "suspension" of the nuclear weapons program can reasonably be described as more of a pause in the process than a complete shutting down of the program.

2) The assumption is that Iran has not acquired the necessary nuclear material from another source.

3) This does not account for Mahmoud the Mad's rhetoric about raining down destruction on Israel and the United States. Would it have been responsible to assume anything else prior to this NIE?

Oh, and a reminder for my liberal buddies who are going nuts about turf wars in the Executive Branch and the previous White House rhetoric on the issue -- these are the same intelligence agencies that were telling us for several years leading up to the current conflict in Iraq that there Saddam had a flourishing WMD program, at the same moderately confident level. Why do you trust this NIE when the previous one leads you to scream "Bush lied, people died"? Is it just that you like these results?

Posted by: Greg at 11:14 PM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
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