June 10, 2007

How Long And How Many -- That Is the Real Question

Following WWII, American troops stayed in Germany for a half century. We still have US troops in Japan, as well as Korea. I guess I've always sort of assumed that we would have a US troop presence in Iraq for the rest of my lifetime, and well beyond that. Indeed, my question is why anyone would be surprised.

U.S. military officials here are increasingly envisioning a "post-occupation" troop presence in Iraq that neither maintains current levels nor leads to a complete pullout, but aims for a smaller, longer-term force that would remain in the country for years.

This goal, drawn from recent interviews with more than 20 U.S. military officers and other officials here, including senior commanders, strategists and analysts, remains in the early planning stages. It is based on officials' assessment that a sharp drawdown of troops is likely to begin by the middle of next year, with roughly two-thirds of the current force of 150,000 moving out by late 2008 or early 2009. The questions officials are grappling with are not whether the U.S. presence will be cut, but how quickly, to what level and to what purpose.

One of the guiding principles, according to two officials here, is that the United States should leave Iraq more intelligently than it entered. Military officials, many of whom would be interviewed only on the condition of anonymity, say they are now assessing conditions more realistically, rejecting the "steady progress" mantra of their predecessors and recognizing that short-term political reconciliation in Iraq is unlikely. A reduction of troops, some officials argue, would demonstrate to anti-American factions that the occupation will not last forever while reassuring Iraqi allies that the United States does not intend to abandon the country.

The planning is shaped in part by logistical realities in Iraq. The immediate all-or-nothing debate in Washington over troop levels represents a false dilemma, some military officials said. Even if a total pullout is the goal, it could take a year to execute a full withdrawal. One official estimated that with only one major route from the country -- through southern Iraq to Kuwait -- it would take at least 3,000 large convoys some 10 months to remove U.S. military gear and personnel alone, not including the several thousand combat vehicles that would be needed to protect such an operation.

"We're not going to go from where we're at now to zero overnight," said Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the U.S. commander for day-to-day operations in Iraq.

Indeed, what we are talking about is a force that will be equal to what we had in Korea for decades -- around 40,000. Of the proposed force remaining in Iraq, 10,000 would be there to help train the Iraqi military, and I would imagine that these troops would be removed within 5-10 years as the Iraqis gain enough experience to train their own. Indeed, I suspect that the US force will be drawn down by 40-50% within 20 years -- but that we will maintain bases in the region for decades for strategic reasons.

Frankly, I don't know why anyone is surprised by the information in this story, and cannot imagine any but the most extreme members of the Left objecting -- you know, the US Out Of San Francisco crowd. For the rest of America -- those who believe in a sound military policy -- this news should be comforting.

Posted by: Greg at 06:51 AM | Comments (174) | Add Comment
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