Could be, according to some numbers crunched by Red State's Moe Lane regarding the House seats seen as competitive next year.

And Lane's analysis of this data? Big GOP gains.

As you can see, there are a lot of Democratic incumbents in districts that typically vote Republican in Presidential elections, and almost no Republican incumbents in districts that vote Democratic. For that matter, something like 72% of the total competitive races are in Republican districtsÂ… which would sound like bad news for the GOP, except that Democratic-held seats make up 75% of both the total and particularly competitive races surveyed by Cook. The midpoint for that list is at R+3; below that point there are 14 GOP districts held by Democrats, and only 7 Democratic ones held by Republicans.

What does that mean, in terms of the 2010 elections? Well, if you assume that every district held by Democrats thatÂ’s at R+4 and above gets flipped, every incumbent between R+3 and D+0 keeps his or her seat, and that every Republican in a Democratic district loses his or her seatÂ… the Democrats lose 31 seats next year. Assume that an incumbent needs to at least break even (i.e., has at least a R or D+0), and the number goes up to 48 seats lost by the Democrats.

As a practical matter, the balance of power would change sharply. With the 31 seat change, we would see the partisan split change from 258 Democrats and 177 Republicans to 227 Democrats and 208 Republicans, which would give Republicans significantly more clout in the House. And if the change goes to the more extreme possibility suggested by Lane, the split nearly reverses, with Republicans holding a 225-210 edge over the Democrats, potentially giving the country a repeat of the 1994 election.

Of course, there is a lot that could happen in the next 12 months, and those events could turn the tables dramatically. But assuming there is not radical shift between now and the 2010 elections, the United States will have a radically different Congress during the second half of Obama's first (and hopefully only) term.

UPDATE: Don Surber points to the possibility of a 6 or 7 seat gain for the GOP in the Senate as well -- not enough for a majority, but certainly enough o allow fo the filibuster of the Obama Agenda.

Posted by: Greg at 01:42 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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