The census comes in 2010 – and will be followed by reapportionment and redistricting in time for the 2012 elections. That may bode well for the GOP, as it is red states that will be gaining seats and blue that lose.

The 2010 census could add multiple House seats to red-leaning states — as many as four districts to Texas and two each to Arizona and Florida. And it could subtract seats from blue-trending states like Michigan, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Most of the states slated to gain seats in reapportionment next cycle feature Republican-controlled state legislatures and governor’s mansions — the powerhouses that decide how to allocate congressional districts.

Now let’s be honest – there is no way that all of the seats gained in Texas will be GOP seats. I’d expect at least one to be solidly Democrat. But the reality is that that this seat will be created by peeling Democrat voters from some marginally Democrat districts – making them more competitive for the GOP. And since the GOP is likely to maintain control of both the legislature and the governor’s mansion in 2010, it will be Republicans who will be in the driver’s seat for drawing the new districts. Something similar will be true in Arizona and Florida.

Posted by: Greg at 09:14 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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