Well, these are certainly interesting, to say the very least.

A lot of the state polls look pretty bad for McCain lately, but there's been an interesting shift in the tracking polls.

• Rasmussen’s Presidential Tracking poll now shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by four points, 50 percent to 46 percent. At one point, Obama was up by 8.
• Gallup’s national tracking poll of likely voters has Obama leading McCain by two points, 49 percent to 47 percent.
• AP/Yahoo shows Obama leading McCain by two points, 44%-42%
• The Reuters/C-Span/Zogby national tracking survey shows Obama leading McCain by five points, 49%-44%.
• The GW/Battleground tracking poll has Obama leading McCain by four points, 49%-45%.

The other thing is, in most of these, if there's been movement, Obama's been pretty consistent - right around, or just under, 50 percent. McCain's gains have come from undecideds.

The key fact there – Obama doesn’t get more than 50% in any of the polls, and in none of them is he ahead by more than 5%. That makes this race winnable in the next 18 days – if we can each persuade one undecided voter to come around to our side – or one unmotivated individual who leans towards McCain to get off their duffs and vote for him.

It is ours to lose – or ours to win. I’d much rather win.

Posted by: Greg at 12:58 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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