It would be great if it could be -- and would mean that Obama is in for a major drubbing if it does.

The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an "enthusiasm gap" that has dogged the GOP all year.

McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

And that is among all registered voters. Look at the likely voters and the bounce looks even more significant, but buried much firther down in the article.

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.

So when you get to those who are most likely to vote, that lead jumps from 4% to 10%. That would put Obama in a big hole right now.

Now I will concede that the analysis of Professor Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia is correct -- in the last half-century, these post-convention polls have only predicted the results correctly half the time. But when you consider where McCain and Obama were relative to one another at the start of the summer, the erosion of support for the Democrat and gain in support for the Republican is something that needs to be taken as a serious sign by both sides.

Posted by: Greg at 02:26 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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