No wonder I've noted a touch of desperation among left-wing bloggers in recent weeks -- it looks like the Democrats may be about to lose what they believed to be a "sure-thing" election here in CD22.

That isn't my assessment -- that is the conclusion that one has to draw based upon the polling data found in Monday's Houston Chronicle.

The Republican write-in effort to hold former Rep. Tom DeLay's congressional seat, once viewed as a long shot, has created a tight race, according to a Houston Chronicle-11 News poll.

Thirty-five percent of respondents said they would vote for a write-in candidate, a statistical tie with the 36 percent support for Democrat Nick Lampson, according to the poll of more than 500 likely voters in the 22nd Congressional District.

Most who say they will write in a candidate plan on naming Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, the Houston city councilwoman backed by the Republican Party. Two lesser-known candidates also are running as write-ins.

One voter in four is still undecided.

Libertarian Bob Smither, the only person besides Lampson on the general election ballot, drew 4 percent support.

The third option on that ballot is "write-in." Voters who make that selection on the electronic voting machines that most will use are directed to an alphabet screen, where they use a wheel to spell out their choice's name a letter at a time.

And since the names of all eligible write-in candidates will be posted in each voting booth, I feel confident that people will not be intimidated by the process. Indeed, I keep hearing from folks who have early voted that they are hearing the sound of wheels spinning and buttons being pushed by those around them -- an indication that there are a great many CD22 voters who are taking the time to use the write-in option to select a candidate.

What the polls show is that Lampson has only 36% of respondents saying they will vote for him -- while 35/1% indicate a plan to vote for a write-in candidate. Of that percentage, 79.4% (or 28% overall) plan on voting for Shelley Sekula-Gibbs. That is an incredible total at this point, and likely to grow as the undecided vote breaks Republican in this heavily GOP district.

Even more important -- both for this year and for 2008 -- if Shelley Sekula-Gibbs were on the ballot, she would be leading Lampson 52% to 35%. There is clearly a preference for her in this race, and only Democrat efforts to keep any Republican off the ballot following DeLay's resignation make this seat one that can be considered "up for grabs".

And actually, I would note this is a Zogby poll, and they tend to favor Democrats. I'm therefore betting the numbers are actually even closer than this result indicates.

UPDATE: And look who came stumping for Shelley today -- President George W. Bush himself!

UPDATE II: Some interesting pieces from RedState.com on Shelley's campaign.

Posted by: Greg at 05:59 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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