I somehow doubt it – though we will see changes in the areas of strength for both.

Though red-eyed and exhausted from staying up most of Election Night, Amber Moon was ebullient over tasting the first victories of her career in Democratic politics.

The 27-year-old University of Houston graduate began working for Democrats in 2002 and now is the state party's official spokeswoman. The last time Democrats had a major victory in Texas, Moon was 14.

Though they were small in comparison with the gains Democrats made nationally, the changes were noticeable: Democrats swept county races in Dallas and Hays. They narrowed the Republican margin in Harris County. They picked up five seats in the state House on Tuesday, plus one more earlier this year.

They captured the U.S. House seat once held by Republican strongman Tom DeLay, and U.S. Rep. Henry Bonilla, R-San Antonio, is facing a runoff.

"We were very excited about the victories we have," Moon said. "People definitely sense a wind of change, and it's not just a national mood trickling down."
But the big question is whether these gains are a fluke of this one election cycle.
The statewide Republican vote this year was the lowest since 1998. And the top vote-getter of the Democrats' 2006 ticket still received fewer votes than the best-performing loser of the party's 2002 ticket.

Plus, the Democrats still face a Republican Party that is far better financed.

And therein lies the story. The vote for the statewide ticket was down because of a four-way gubernatorial race,and many people not voting down-ballot. Had it been a straight-up race between Chris Bell and Rick Perry, Perry would have handed Bell his head by a margin of at least 20 percentage points – and the other statewide races would have been even more strongly Republican than they were this year. The CD22 race would have turned out different if there had been a Republican on the ballot (Dems won a court fight to prevent that) and the Bonilla race is a runoff because of the redistricting decision this summer and the resultant free-for-all with multiple candidates. Bonilla will likely hold his seat, and CD22 will be Republican again in two years.

But there are changes. Dallas County continued its trend towards the Democrats, with a sweep of local races. Harris County judicial races went for the GOP, but by smaller margins which were probably the result of the drop in straight-party voting this year. And the shift of GOP voters to suburban counties from the urban core in Dallas and Harris are likely to make both Democrat strongholds with a majority of minority voters – but with shrinking populations. In the mean time, the suburban counties are growing and growing Republican.

And then there is the Hispanic vote – and the question of how it ultimately breaks here in Texas. If Republicans can get anywhere near a 50% share, we are likely to remain the majority party. And there is evidence of such a trend.

Carney said Hispanics cannot be counted on as Democratic voters when the new immigrant population begins voting. He said Republicans are reaching out to those potential voters.

He said that is why a decade ago a quarter of the Hispanic voters cast Republican ballots and now it is about 35 percent.

Perry won heavily Hispanic South Texas with 35 percent of the vote.

So what will happen here in Texas? My guess is that we will remain a conservative Republican state, but that races might get more competitive – particularly if the Blue Dogs begin to have significant and long-term influence in the Democrat Party.

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